Ponderosa Residential Development
The Ponderosa development consists of approximately 18,000 acres of land assets located in Newhall Ranch and Valencia, California that will be developed over the next 15 years. Newhall Ranch is a master planned community with approximately 19,200 residential lots, 12,000 total acres with 255 acres specifically for commercial land development and other assets, including agriculture, infrastructure, and utilities. Valencia contains approximately 6,500 residential lots, 6,000 total acres with 244 acres specifically for commercial land development and other assets. The site development consisted of grading, drainage, street development, and other activities necessary to prepare the developments; and required the removal of 140 million cubic yards of earthwork on more than 300 acres of land between 2008 and 2018. Spire’s construction engineering consultants provided cost and schedule risk evaluations that included validation of existing cost estimates and schedules, and identification of potential cost and schedule risks during the 15-year development of the project. Spire’s cost and schedule validation analysis included the quantification and costing of materials and labor for both vertical and horizontal construction, and an explanation of discrepancies between estimates. This portion of the analysis involved a detailed review of the project drawings and other project documentation, such as engineering reports, specifications and job cost reports. This effort included an evaluation of more than $20 billion of construction costs to be allocated over 15 years. Spire’s cost/schedule risk analysis resulted in the identification of likely construction cost trends over the 15-year development period and an evaluation of risks associated with these trends. This effort included the review and analysis of 11 years of previous relevant data, including labor trends; construction labor; and material costs, employment statistics, fuel prices, and significant force majeure events (i.e., Hurricane Katrina, etc.). Spire analyzed this data using national and regional cost indices and a lead-lag analysis methodology. Spire’s efforts assisted the owner in obtaining financing for the project and negotiating contracts.