The Hidden Risks of Forecasting Early Completion in Construction Schedules

August 11, 2025

In construction, a well-prepared baseline schedule is more than just a planning tool. It is the foundation for tracking progress, managing delays, and resolving disputes. Yet, many contractors unknowingly put themselves at a disadvantage by forecasting early completion in their baseline schedules. While this may appear to reflect strong performance, it can expose the contractor to unnecessary risk and limit their ability to recover time-related damages if delays occur.

This article explores the risks of forecasting an early completion, how total float plays into that risk, and why aligning the baseline schedule with the contractual completion date is often a smarter strategy.

Understanding Total Float and the Baseline Schedule

AACE International defines the baseline schedule as the fixed project schedule that is the standard by which project performance is measured. It includes the sequence and duration of all activities from notice to proceed through completion. The longest path or critical path determines how long the project will take to complete.

Total float is the maximum number of work periods by which an activity can be delayed without delaying project completion or violating a target (milestone) finish date.  While it is a helpful buffer, ownership of float is rarely defined in contracts. When float ownership is not contractually defined, AACE Recommended Practice 29R-03 treats total float as a shared project resource used on a first come, first served basis. This means that delays, no matter the source, consume float and can leave the contractor exposed.

Why Forecasting Early Completion Introduces Risk

When contractors build float into their longest path by forecasting an early completion, such as planning to finish two weeks before the contractual completion date, that time becomes vulnerable. If delays occur, float is consumed even if the delay is caused by the owner or a third party. As a result:

  • The contractor may lose the ability to request a time extension
  • The contractor could be denied compensation for extended general conditions
  • The contractor could be on the hook for Liquidated Damages if they cause additional delay

This scenario leaves the contractor bearing time-related costs that cannot be recovered.

On the other hand, if the baseline schedule aligns precisely with the contract duration, finishing exactly on the required substantial completion date, then any delay to the critical path is a delay to the project. This positions the contractor to pursue a valid extension of time and recover associated costs.

Baseline Strategy: Align with the Contract

Rather than forecasting early completion, contractors can protect themselves by aligning their baseline schedule’s longest path with the contractual completion date. This results in zero float on the critical path and puts the project in a stronger position if delays occur.

To implement this strategy effectively, contractors should:

  • Ensure the means and methods modeled in the schedule are reasonable, safe, and consistent with contractual requirements
  • Accurately model inspections, weather days, punch list, and closeout activities
  • Consider historical weather averages or allowances as defined in the contract
  • Validate that all logic ties and durations are appropriate and reflect realistic sequencing

This approach creates a defensible baseline that aligns with both the contract and real-world execution.

Key Takeaways

  • Forecasting an early completion reduces the contractor’s ability to recover damages when delays are caused by others
  • Total float is shared, not owned by the contractor, and can be consumed by any delay
  • Aligning the baseline with the contract duration minimizes risk and strengthens the contractor’s position in a dispute
  • Careful schedule development, including safety planning, weather allowances, and realistic sequencing, is critical to project success

While early completion might look good on paper, it rarely provides tangible benefits and often introduces avoidable risks. Contractors should carefully weigh these factors and consider aligning their baseline schedules with the contractual timeframe to protect their interests throughout the project lifecycle.

To explore the full technical analysis with detailed schedule examples and download the original white paper: The Risks and Implications of Forecasting an Early Completion in a Baseline Schedule
[Download the Full Paper]
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